Into the unknown!
It is often difficult to look to the past and not see it as somewhat determined. So many things that needed to happen just so happened exactly as they needed to. While some historians (like G. Vico, I am learning) assign this to some divine Providence or the fate of the Stoics, I don’t find this terribly helpful in thinking about history. As much hope as God’s Providence might be, it’s easy to rely on it as a crutch to excuse bad acting as if to say “this is what God wanted, so it’s what we got.”
In reading Thucydides, I get a much more contingent picture that emphasizes the agency of humanity, and even chance, in the outplaying of history. As stirring as the funeral oration of Pericles is, the real main events happen not primarily in monologue, but dialogue. As we move along through the narrative of the Peloponnesian war, there are various inflection points where the course of the war, history itself, hangs in the balance of the varying arguments. Has Athens started the war already, ought Sparta defend its allies or would Sparta be aggressor starting a preemptive war provoked by fiery, revenge seeking partners? Should the Athenians press of in the face of monumental plague or ought they capitulate to Sparta to ease the pressure? How should the Athenians deal with a revolt in one of the cities in their empire: kill everyone and make a statement or show some measure of forbearance to curry allegiance? Neither of these arguments is a slam dunk, both offer merits and drawbacks. These cities will require wisdom in order to navigate these events. To be fair, I am only part way through the book but I can’t imagine this will be the end of massive decisions facing the warring Hellenes.
As each of these issues arises, Thucydides supplies his readers with speeches to capture the tenor of the moment and none of them seem terribly far fetched. It is easy to sit entrenched in contemporary partisan positions and “know” what the right choice is but the speeches by the varying factions of Greece tear down the facade of simplicity. Perhaps it might instill fear in all would-be insurrectionists to level an entire city, wiping a people from the map. Perhaps, also, knowing death is the certain end in defeat might cause future malcontents to rally all the stronger for their cause and boost them to victory. As strong as Athens is, it is not impenetrable or invincible. Even with a mighty army, stirred by a rousing speech extolling the unique greatness of Athens, the city might immediately be laid low by a plague that plunges the city into near anarchy.
In telling the story of the battle of Pylos, Thucydides makes this all the more explicit. The Athenians have an advantage: the Spartans are surrounded and flailing. Despite standing against near certain death from the Persian horde just a few decades earlier, the Spartans sheepishly offer terms of peace to the Athenians. The case to the Athenians is fairly simple: “avoid the mistake so often made by those who meet with some extraordinary piece of good luck and then go on pressing forward in the hope of more still.” Athens has achieved a splendid victory, if only they will take it. A naval power has subdued the great land power of the war and could end the conflict on fairly amicable terms. However they must avoid the greed that befalls so many who achieve some level of success. We can see this play out in moments in our lives in game shows where, in order to attain the one million dollar prize, the contestant must risk the half-million dollars they have secured. Do you take what you have gained and be happy, or should you press for just that little bit more?
The Spartans remind the Athenians that “true wisdom is shown by those who make careful use of their advantages in the knowledge that things will change.” Note the certainty here: not that things might change but that they will. Athens has the opportunity to end the war and secure “peace, alliance, and friendly and neighborly relations.” To gain friendship between Athens and Sparta would be an unprecedented position of peace for the Greeks. Yet Athens cannot stomach leaving a little bit of winnings on the table. Rebuffing the Spartan embassy, they instead insist on fighting on. Having the Spartans submitted to them, they assumed they could press their advantage as far as they wanted to achieve whatever goals they sought. Yet it doesn’t take long for the situation to twist exactly as the Spartans had warned. Soon the Spartans have found a way to resupply their troops and they are able to withstand the pressure of the Athenians. Seeing that the Spartans had circumvented their siege, the Athenians lamented not accepting the offers of peace. With much of the work still to go, we will see if this lesson is learned.
One of the best lessons from my undergraduate education was when my history professor, also covering the Peloponessian war, asked us each to choose which argument we found most compelling and the reason for it. We were then sorted by which choice we made and he told us the results. In a very small way, we felt the consequences of making our choice. Choosing the good option from a series of bad ones is not terribly difficult. However, choosing the best from a series of good, or at least equally ambivalent, is one that requires a significant amount of wisdom. There is often no singular correct answer to the situations a person or a polis faces. These are difficult choices but they must be made.